A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
